The decision table
| Choose a heat pump when | Choose a furnace when |
|---|---|
| You want cooling too; the permit type is "Heat Pump & AC" for a reason | You have gas, a working duct system and no need for cooling |
| You can wait: the usual permit took 105 days to final | You want the file closed fast: the usual furnace permit took 66 days |
| Your household is at or below 150% of area median income and a HEAR administrator covers your area (Commerce, HEAR page) | No rebate applies and the filed value is what matters: $7,550 usual furnace job against $8,000 for a heat pump |
| You are filing in January, the quietest month for heat-pump permits (index 80) | You are filing in August, the quietest month for furnace permits (index 87) |
Cost: what was filed, not what was quoted
| Heat pump | Furnace and heating | |
|---|---|---|
| Permits in window | 15,441 | 18,668 |
| Distinct firms | 272 | 316 |
| Usual filed value | $8,000 | $7,550 |
| Finished (reached final) | 85.6% | 86.2% |
| Usual days, permit to final | 105 | 66 |
| Busiest month (index) | June (130) | October (130) |
| Quietest month (index) | January (80) | August (87) |
| Busiest firm, last 12 months | Greenwood Htng & Home Services (646 permits) | Greenwood Htng & Home Services (901 permits) |
| Firms with an active L&I registration | 76.1% | 78.5% |
The filed value is the contractor's estimate of project cost, written on the permit application. Seattle records one on 96.4% of heat-pump permits. It is not a quote, not an invoice, and it does not include the electrical permit that a heat pump often needs on top. Firms differ more than the two trades do: the middle half of heat-pump firms (3+ permits) usually file between $6,000 and $15,000 a job, and furnace firms between $6,500 and $14,000. A quote well outside that band is a question to ask the firm, not proof it is wrong.
Permits and timeline
Both jobs need a mechanical permit in Seattle, and the file shows both trades closing most of them: 85.6% of heat-pump permits reached final against 86.2% of furnace permits. The difference that matters is time. The usual heat-pump permit was open 105 days from issue to final; the usual furnace permit was open 66 days. Those are measured from the completion date the City records, with permits still open on the snapshot date counted as unfinished rather than dropped.
So a heat-pump permit open three months after the crew left is ordinary. What separates firms is whether it closes at all: among heat-pump firms with 10 or more permits, the 10th-percentile firm finished 64.8% and the 90th-percentile firm 96.7%; 17 of 118 were under 70%.
When Seattle files
Heat-pump permits peak in June (index 130, where 100 is an average month) and bottom out in January (80). Furnace permits run the other way: a October peak (130) and an August low (87). The index is filing volume, not price; we have no data on whether quiet months are cheaper.
Who does the work
The two lists overlap heavily: 222 firms appear in both (computed from the two Seattle firm lists, snapshot 17 October 2026). The busiest firm in each over the last twelve months is the same company, Greenwood Htng & Home Services, with 646 heat-pump permits and 901 furnace permits. Volume is one signal. On the compare pages you can weight it against finished share, speed and price fit, and the list re-sorts.
License status is the other. 76.1% of heat-pump firms and 78.5% of furnace firms matched a Washington L&I registration with status Active on 17 October 2026. The rest are unmatched (often a name difference) or matched to an Expired or Suspended record. The compare page shows which.
Incentives
| Program | Who qualifies | Amount | Source |
|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Clean Heat Program, oil to heat pump | Seattle homes heated with oil | $2,000 instant rebate | City of Seattle OSE |
| Clean Heat bonus rebate | Moderate-income households, 81% to 150% of area median income | $4,000 more, up to $6,000 combined; installs completed by 30 May 2027 | City of Seattle OSE |
| Seattle City Light air-source heat pump discount | Installed by a contractor who buys from a participating distributor; no DIY | $300, $400 or $600 by efficiency tier (top tier SEER2 16.0, HSPF2 9.5) | Seattle City Light |
| Washington HEAR | Households at or below 150% of area median income, through local administrators | Set by the administrator | WA Commerce |
| Federal 25C credit | None: not for property placed in service after 31 December 2025 | — | IRS Form 5695 instructions |
Read 20 and 21 October 2026. Income-qualified households below the bonus band may get a free conversion from oil or gas through the Office of Housing, the Clean Heat page says. Nothing in this table applies to a gas furnace.
The City's own reading of its permits points the same way. Its sustainability office reported in February 2025 that heat-pump installations had outnumbered gas and oil furnace installations since 2014 and made up 81% of home heating system upgrades in 2024, "from City of Seattle permits" (Greenspace, City of Seattle OSE).
Washington's Department of Commerce runs the State Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates program (HEAR), funded by the state's Climate Commitment Act. Its page lists heat pumps for heating and cooling, heat-pump water heaters and the electrical panel and wiring upgrades needed to install them as eligible equipment (ENERGY STAR or AHRI certified), offered through local administrators to households at or below 150% of area median income; Commerce says it has awarded $39,323,876 to 40 administrators (Commerce, HEAR page, read 20 October 2026). The page does not state rebate amounts, so we do not either. Ask the installer which administrator covers your address.
What this does not tell you
The file does not record fuel type, equipment size, efficiency rating, whether ducts were replaced, or what you paid. It does not know your house. It cannot say whether a heat pump will keep you warm in a Seattle cold snap. The filed value excludes the separate electrical permit, and license status is matched by business name.
How we know this
Source: Seattle Department of Construction and Inspections open permit data, mechanical permits on single-family and duplex homes, window 2023-10 to 2026-09, snapshot 17 October 2026. "Heat Pump & AC" and "Furnace & Heating" are the City's own permit descriptions, classified by us into the two trades. Fields: permit count, distinct firms, filed estimated project cost (usual = middle value), issue-to-final days from the City's completion date (open permits counted as unfinished), finished share of mature permits, monthly filing index, permits per firm in the last twelve months, L&I registration status by business-name match (unmatched is not unlicensed). Rebate facts are from the Washington State Department of Commerce HEAR page, accessed 20 October 2026.
Numbers come from City of Seattle (SDCI) building, trade and electrical permits on single-family and duplex homes (the city's open-data exports), data through October 17, 2026. Nobody paid to be on this page and nobody can.
See every Seattle heat-pump installer by their permit record →
See every Seattle furnace contractor by their permit record →
Questions
- Is the filed value what a heat pump costs in Seattle?
No. It is the estimated project cost the contractor wrote on the permit. It is useful for comparing one firm's usual job size with another's, and for spotting a quote that is far from the usual, but it is not a quote and not the final bill.
- Why does a heat pump permit take longer to finish than a furnace permit?
The file records the dates, not the reasons. The usual heat-pump permit went from issue to final in 105 days against 66 for a furnace. A heat pump usually adds an outdoor unit and electrical work, which can mean more inspections, but that is our reading, not something the file states.
- Do the same companies do both?
Many do. 222 of the 272 firms in the heat-pump list also appear in the furnace list (computed from the two Seattle firm lists, snapshot 17 October 2026). The busiest firm in both lists over the last twelve months is Greenwood Htng & Home Services.
- How can I lower what I pay for a heat pump in Seattle? What rebates are there in 2026?
Switching from oil: a $2,000 instant rebate, plus a $4,000 bonus for households at 81% to 150% of area median income, for installs completed by 30 May 2027 (Seattle Clean Heat Program). Through a contractor who buys from a participating distributor: a $300 to $600 Seattle City Light instant discount, by efficiency tier. Statewide, the Commerce HEAR program for households at or below 150% of area median income. The federal 25C credit ended for systems placed in service after 31 December 2025 (IRS).
- Does Seattle's file include gas furnaces and electric furnaces separately?
No. The "Furnace & Heating" trade covers mechanical permits for furnaces, boilers and other heating equipment that is not a heat pump. The split we can make is heat pump versus everything else in heating.
Build your own list
Every firm with that kind of permit on record. Pick what you value. The list moves.
Related guides
- Repair or replace your furnace or AC? The filed costs and the rules
- Hiring an HVAC contractor: 5 red flags and 10 questions, checked against HVAC permits in 43 cities
- How long does an HVAC system last? Furnace, AC and heat pump lifespans, and when to replace
- How to finance a roof, heat pump or solar: FHA, USDA, PACE and state loans compared
- What is a heat pump? How it differs from an AC and a furnace, and what Seattle filed
For one city
- State Home Electrification and Appliance Rebates Program (HEAR), Washington State Department of Commerce (accessed 2026-10-20)
- Seattle's Clean Heat Program — City of Seattle Office of Sustainability & Environment (accessed 2026-10-21)
- Home Energy Solutions — Seattle City Light (accessed 2026-10-21)
- Heat Pump Installations Soar in Seattle — Greenspace, City of Seattle OSE (21 Feb 2025) (accessed 2026-10-21)
- Instructions for Form 5695 (2025) — IRS, last updated 30 April 2026 (accessed 2026-10-20)